Surge in COVID-19 Cases - India
Let me tell you a kutty story..
Irrespective of elections, most of the highly infected states had seen a recent blow-up in COVID cases. While the virus was struggling all these days, it had attained its escape velocity around March 21st, 2021. Since then the cases are surging at an exponential rate.
The blame on election campaigns can’t be undermined, as there are national parties involved. The election apparatus’ movement is not just confined within the 4 election-going states.
Let’s do some number crunching. (For TN)
Day to day trend provides valuable insight. However to correlate with state medical capacity, statistics of active cases at a given point in time is crucial.
Moving average is chosen, considering the fact that a patient on an average takes 7 days to recover (a conservative estimate) — in which time period one might need extensive medical care.
Active cases in these 5 weeks time frame for Tamilnadu could be inferred from the following graph.
From the above graphs, it is fitting to say that the number of active cases doubled every week. Chennai being the major contributor to the total cases, it is safe to assume that the capital also follows similar trend.
Extrapolating on the above trend, the active number of cases for Chennai is computed & plotted in the following graph. Assumption — No strict lockdown measures in the projected time period.
The numbers look grim, needless to say.
When will our medical facilities be overwhelmed in Chennai?
Based on April 11, 2021 estimates, Chennai has around 18852 beds. Let’s round it up and make it to 20000. Besides, R.Jayanthi, Dean of GH, Omandurar quoted that 3/4th of the patients required oxygen support. Again, going by the conservative figures, let’s assume that half of the patients required admission and medical support.
Thus from the above plot, it could be concluded that in & around 4th May, 2021, we would have overwhelmed Chennai’s medical infrastructure capacity, unless any new beds are added into the system.
If Chennai has 20k beds, Coimbatore would have 1/3rd & Tiruchy would have 1/2 of Chennai’s capacity. By 4th of May, 2021 system would be overflowing with patients & avoidable deaths will be imminent.
What is happening in Delhi?
Delhi has around 95k active cases, as of 18th April, 2021. If a quarter of them needs to be critically examined & monitored, that implies 23k beds are needed.
But the total capacity of Delhi is only 17k beds. The system is inundated well and above the flood line.
At this point, LOCKDOWN IS THE LEAST THAT WE CAN DO to safeguard us and the frontline workers.
Finally about vaccination,
The success of Pulse Polio immunisation program in India is a case study in itself, in the path to 100% coverage. It took consistent canvassing alongside field visits to ensure that all chidren are vaccinated.
In TN, VHNs, ANMs & the likes of Primary and Secondary Health care centres had approached the universal coverage goal in 3 stages.
- Initially, children will be called to a common venue such as anganwadis, HSCs, PHCs, GHs (for which a Polio Slip would be issued to all children well before) on a Sunday
- On the following days, VHNs and other workers will do a field visit & mark the homes’ where children didn’t vaccinate themselves
- On the immunisation day (Wednesday), those left-out children would be requested to visit the vaccination booth.
If Polio received such a dedicated attention, what should it be for COVID? We can’t sit in the comforts of our room & criticize people for the lukewarm response.
We are in a crisis. Extreme situation require extraordinary solutions, as the adage goes… It’s high time that India appreciates the emergency we are in.
Follow the 3-Ws: Wear a mask, Wash your hands often, Watch your distance. Take care everyone.
Disclaimer: The analysis is purely empirical in nature. No scientific modelling approach was used to arrive at these estimates.
March 21st 2021 is not a magic date except in appearance. The explosion in the number of cases happened around that time frame — March 21st 2021+/- 2 days.
PS: I wish, my numbers are wrong!!